New research by North Carolina State University, Carnegie Mellon University, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Toronto predicts that electricity demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining could increase power costs in some regions by up to 57% by 2030, with a national average increase ranging from 6% to 29%. The study also estimates that electricity demand associated with data centers may raise CO2 emissions by as much as 28% by 2030 compared to a scenario without growth in data centers.
The findings, detailed in the paper “Power System Costs and Emissions from Data Center and Cryptocurrency Mining Expansion in the United States,” published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, indicate that power demand in the U.S. has been relatively stable for nearly 20 years but has significantly risen recently, largely due to the expansion of data centers. “In the past couple of years, we’ve seen a significant increase in power demand, due largely to data centers and—to a lesser extent—cryptocurrency mining,” said Jeremiah Johnson, the corresponding author of the study.
Researchers utilized computational modeling to assess future power demand from data centers and cryptocurrency through 2030, analyzing energy supply and demand hourly for 26 regions across the contiguous United States. “The optimization model we used was designed to focus on electrical power generation,” Johnson stated. “Increased demand will lead to increased carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation, which could rise by up to 28% over the next three and a half years.”
Despite advancements in reducing carbon emissions in the power sector over the past two decades, Johnson warned that these gains could be undermined by increased demand. The study forecasts price hikes will be most significant in Virginia, eastern North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, west Texas, Ohio, West Virginia, and New York. Johnson indicated that the magnitude of future price increases will depend on geographical distribution of data centers, asserting that concentrated expansion in specific areas would lead to steeper price hikes.
Uncertainty surrounds the costs tied to establishing new natural gas turbines and the price of natural gas itself. Johnson remarked, “Regardless of fuel costs and the expense of building natural gas plants, we still see substantial increases in electricity cost and CO2 emissions.” He stressed the need for public awareness and informed decision-making by policymakers, highlighting that the year 2030 is approaching rapidly.
The researchers called upon regulators and utilities to reassess their strategies for near-term power generation in light of these findings, emphasizing the urgency for government officials to consider the implications of data center construction as demand for electricity continues to grow.
