Trading volume on Polymarket reached $529 million for contracts tied to the timing of a U.S. or Israeli bombing of Iran, according to Bloomberg. The volume indicates significant speculative interest in Middle East conflict outcomes.
An analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA identified potential market manipulation. The analysis found that six newly-created accounts profited $1 million by betting the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman suggested this behavior could indicate insider trading. Vaiman noted that Polymarket’s anonymity creates incentives for informed participants to act early on circulating information regarding war or conflict.
Separate analytics firm Polysights noted similar activity in January. Polysights observed a spike in bets regarding the likelihood that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer hold his role by the end of March. Khamenei has since died.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour addressed concerns regarding markets tied to death. Mansour stated that Kalshi does not list markets directly tied to death. He added that Kalshi would reimburse all fees from bets where potential outcomes involve death. Polymarket operates on the Polygon network and is currently unavailable to U.S.-based users.
