SpaceX’s upcoming IPO has led to massive investor activity in cryptocurrency, particularly with a whale investor opening a $22.3 million leveraged long position on SPCX, a synthetic pre-IPO perpetual contract linked to the aerospace company. This position has already generated over $1.15 million in unrealized profits, according to data from Hypurrscan.
Synthetic SPCX is trading around $175, roughly 30% above SpaceX’s IPO price of $135. The whale initiated this long position near $168 and currently holds a 2x isolated long valued at approximately $22.29 million. The whale’s position was visible on Hypurrscan, which highlights the growing confidence in SpaceX’s market debut.
SpaceX’s IPO aims to raise $75 billion by selling approximately 555.6 million shares, positioning the company’s valuation at around $1.77 trillion. At the same time, other markets, such as IG International derivatives, suggest a valuation of about $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the price set by the IPO.
Polymarket traders have assigned a 56% probability that SpaceX will close its first trading day with a market capitalization between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion. However, historical data indicates that while the current 30% premium for SPCX suggests strong initial demand, previous IPOs with similar trajectories have often seen prices decline after the first-day excitement subsides.
From 2020 to 2025, U.S. IPOs have typically averaged 30% gains on their first day, benefiting primarily those investors who purchase shares at the offer price. Data from analyst Jay Ritter shows that companies with positive first-day returns have historically underperformed the market in the following three years by an average of 8.5 percentage points.
Furthermore, IPOs valued with high price-to-sales ratios, such as SpaceX’s nearly 94 times trailing sales, frequently result in negative returns over a three-year period. Recent high-profile IPOs like Cerebras, Rivian, and Uber have displayed similar downward trends following initial market enthusiasm.
Analysts have raised concerns about SpaceX’s valuation. Morningstar’s Nicholas Owens estimates a fair value of $780 billion, while NYU’s Aswath Damodaran places it between $1.25 trillion and $1.3 trillion. The Fundamental Investor stated that SPCX is likely to drop below the IPO price, putting early retail investors at risk of losses.
The whale’s liquidation level for the SPCX long position sits at approximately $93.27, which could yield an estimated loss of $9.4 million if the price reaches that threshold. These indicators suggest caution for new investors entering the SPCX market as the IPO approaches.
