Contract prices for mobile DRAM are projected to increase significantly in the second quarter of 2026, with LPDDR4X modules rising by 70-75% quarter-on-quarter and LPDDR5X climbing by 78-83%, according to a survey from TrendForce published on May 14. These increases follow previous record hikes and exacerbate a cost crisis, prompting major smartphone manufacturers to reduce their production forecasts.
The price surge is part of a broader memory “super-cycle,” fueled by the high demand from AI data centers. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron control approximately 90% of global DRAM production and have increasingly shifted their focus to high-bandwidth memory and server-grade modules, leaving consumer products under-supplied. Analysts report that AI data centers are expected to consume 70% of high-end DRAM production in 2026, as highlighted in a Wall Street Journal report.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that memory availability has become the main constraint for AI server shipments, rather than compute silicon. The demand for LPDDR5X memory, traditionally found in smartphones, has surged in data centers, where it is used in Nvidia’s Grace and Vera CPUs.
Chinese smartphone manufacturers are among those feeling the most significant impact. Xiaomi has reduced its 2026 shipment projections by 70 million units from a prior target of 180 million units, according to the South China Morning Post. OPPO and Vivo have similarly decreased their shipment forecasts by over 20% and nearly 15%, focusing reductions on mid- and low-end models, as reported by Jiemian News.
According to a forecast from IDC in February, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 12.9% in 2026, hitting 1.12 billion units, marking a historical downturn for the market. The share of memory costs in a smartphone’s bill of materials has risen dramatically, now averaging 30-40%, up from 10-15% historically, TrendForce noted.
The outlook for improved supply remains bleak. A report by Nikkei Asia indicated that leading DRAM suppliers would only increase output to about 60% of demand by 2027. Sumit Singh, senior vice president at Lava International, stated that memory is now about half of device costs, predicting that this issue will persist until the end of 2027 due to the lengthy lead time required to bring new fabrication capacities online.
In terms of pricing strategies for Q2, Samsung has opted for substantial one-time price increases, while SK Hynix is following a more gradual approach, with final pricing expected by late May. TrendForce’s Avril Wu warned that new DRAM production will not significantly ease global supply issues until 2028.
