Polymarket has launched a new category of prediction markets focused on private companies, enabling users to trade on questions related to pre-IPO companies. This new offering, announced Tuesday, aims to bring greater price discovery to private markets where valuation data is often scarce.
The development of these markets was done in partnership with Nasdaq Private Market, which will provide the underlying data and market infrastructure for these contracts. The new markets are designed to reflect expectations around events such as fundraising rounds, valuation changes, and other corporate milestones for startups and late-stage private companies.
This initiative expands Polymarket’s offerings, which traditionally centered on political and macroeconomic events, into private capital markets, addressing the demand for market-based forecasting tools tied to private companies. Polymarket stated that the emergence of unicorns—privately held startups valued at $1 billion or more—has increased the call for such tools, noting that nearly 1,600 unicorns exist worldwide with a combined valuation exceeding $5 trillion. However, access to these companies remains largely limited to private investors.
Polymarket’s partnership with Nasdaq reflects a growing interest in prediction markets among institutional investors, as private company data and event-based contracts gain traction. Despite this trend, retail traders still dominate the prediction market landscape, comprising 80% of market volume, according to an April report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket.
As institutional participation in prediction markets rises, analysts cite a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment and enhancements in market infrastructure as contributing factors. Bernstein highlighted the first institutional block trade on Kalshi as a significant milestone for the sector. However, the SEC has delayed prediction market ETFs due to concerns regarding their mechanics and associated risks.
