Meta is forecast to surpass Google in global ad revenues by the end of 2026, according to Emarketer’s latest outlook. This development marks a significant shift in the digital advertising landscape, with Meta likely to generate US$243 billion in net worldwide ad revenue, compared to Google’s US$239.5 billion.
Meta’s projected growth reflects a broader trend in the market, indicating that it is poised to close the gap with Google, which held the lead in 2025. Google reported US$214 billion in ad revenue, while Meta followed with US$196 billion during the same period. Meta’s growth rate is expected to accelerate to 24.1% in 2026, up from 22.1% in 2025, whereas Google is expected to experience a steadier growth rate of nearly 12%.
Google currently commands 26.4% of global digital ad spend, but this figure has been declining since 2021. Meta’s market share is anticipated to reach 26.8% in 2026. Amazon is also gaining ground in the digital ad sector, projected to generate US$68.64 billion in 2025, rising to US$82 billion in 2026.
Meta, Google, and Amazon are expected to collectively account for 62.3% of total worldwide digital ad spend in 2026, with this concentration of power anticipated to persist through 2028. Analysts from Emarketer noted that recent legal developments involving Meta and YouTube are not expected to significantly impact these projections.
Max Willens, a principal analyst at Emarketer, stated, “In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated.” He emphasized that Meta has effectively built and defended its advantages in scale, network effects, and user habits.
For advertisers, spending on Meta is increasingly becoming a matter of scale rather than entry. Willens noted that for many, the question is not whether to allocate funds to Meta’s platforms, but rather how much to invest.
Willens also pointed out that Google possesses mechanisms to boost its growth but highlighted the challenges posed by the diversity of its business. “Google has plenty of levers it can pull to try to speed up growth,” he said, noting that YouTube Premium generates substantial subscriber revenue, complicating its ad revenue strategy.
Zach Goldner, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer, mentioned that Meta is unlocking more value across its ecosystem through tools like Advantage+ and AI-generated ads, which are yielding better returns for advertisers. “As a result, advertisers are getting better bang for their buck, and that’s pulling more ad dollars onto the platform,” he said.
Legal developments are unlikely to shift advertiser behavior in the near term, according to Goldner. “These cases will take years to fully play out… advertisers don’t reallocate billions of dollars based on legal risk – they follow performance,” he added.
Drew Spink, also a senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer, noted that the consolidation of ad dollars among Google, Meta, and Amazon is driven by advantages in first-party data and AI capabilities. Smaller platforms struggle to compete in this arena.
The global advertising market is set to surpass US$1 trillion for the first time in 2026, driven by demand for digital channels and bolstered advertiser confidence. According to a report by dentsu, 86% of CMOs expect an increase in advertising budgets over the next year, with digital formats expected to remain the primary growth engine in advertising.
