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Will Rivian’s hands-off driving bet finally push its stock higher

This hands-off system will enable Rivian to compete with established players like Ford and General Motors, which have developed similar systems (Ford's name for its system is BlueCruise, while GM refers to its system as SuperCruise)

byKerem Gülen
February 21, 2025
in Finance, News
Home News Finance

Rivian plans to launch a hands-off version of its driver assistance system for highway driving “in a few weeks,” with an “eyes-off” version expected to debut in 2026.

Rivian to launch hands-off driver assistance system soon

This hands-off system will enable Rivian to compete with established players like Ford and General Motors, which have developed similar systems (Ford’s name for its system is BlueCruise, while GM refers to its system as SuperCruise). In contrast, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, although labeled as such, requires users to keep their hands on the wheel.

The upcoming launch comes amid a forecast for another challenging year for Rivian, influenced by potential changes in regulatory policies under the Trump administration. In its most recent results, the company reported its first positive gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2024, bolstered by a cost-cutting initiative and increased revenue from software and services.

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Since its inception, Rivian has emphasized autonomy, with CEO RJ Scaringe previously discussing concepts where vehicles would autonomously meet owners post-hike. However, the focus shifted primarily to completing its IPO and scaling its vehicle production. Now, Rivian has consistently built and delivered around 50,000 vehicles over the past two years, supported by a deal with Volkswagen that allows for a renewed focus on driver assistance technology.


Tesla vs. Rivian: Which EV stock should you buy this month?


Rivian employs an “end-to-end” training approach for its driver assistance platform, similar to Tesla’s method for its Full Self-Driving software. This technique utilizes data from cameras and radar to develop models for the driver assistance system rather than relying on rigid coding rules.

Initially, like its competitors, Rivian’s hands-off feature will only be enabled on highways. Scaringe mentioned plans for the system to eventually expand to other types of roads with the launch of the eyes-off version in 2026, stating, “Ultimately, the end state, we think hands-free, eyes-off needs to be available essentially everywhere.”

To enhance its self-driving models, Rivian is exploring innovative ways to access a substantial amount of GPUs without incurring significant capital expenditure, diverging from Tesla’s substantial spending on GPUs.

Rivian’s fourth-quarter report revealed a gross profit of $170 million, attributed to improved variable costs and revenue per vehicle. Scaringe highlighted, “This quarter we achieved positive gross profit and removed $31,000 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle delivered in Q4 2024 relative to Q4 2023.” The company is focused on cost efficiency in preparation for the launch of its upcoming R2 mass-market product.

For 2025, Rivian anticipates an adjusted EBITDA loss between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion, forecasting vehicle deliveries of 46,000 to 51,000. CFO Claire McDonough noted expected seasonal declines in Q1 deliveries, estimating only 8,000 deliveries due to wildfires affecting California’s state, where many Rivian purchases are made. For Q4 2024, Rivian produced 12,727 vehicles and delivered 14,183 units.

Rivian reported quarterly revenue of $1.73 billion, exceeding expectations of $1.38 billion. This figure represents a 32% increase over the previous year. The company disclosed an adjusted loss per share of $0.46, which was better than the anticipated $0.65 loss, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $277 million, also better than the projected $399.8 million.

During 2024, Rivian recorded an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.68 billion, an improvement over the prior forecast of $2.87 billion and a reduction from a $3.78 billion loss in the previous year. The company has $5.29 billion in cash and cash equivalents, down from $7.85 billion a year ago.

In November, Rivian announced an enhanced partnership with Volkswagen, solidifying a joint venture utilizing Rivian’s “zonal architecture” for the development of its forthcoming R2 SUV expected in 2026. Rivian also secured a conditional commitment from the Department of Energy for a $6.6 billion loan under the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing program, aimed at supporting a new assembly plant near Atlanta. However, scrutiny from the Trump administration may place this loan in jeopardy.

The potential elimination of the federal EV tax credit poses another challenge, especially for new entrants like Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla. Earlier this month, Rivian announced it would open orders for its EDV commercial delivery van, which could provide a new revenue source as the company seeks to enhance its scale and grow revenue.


Featured image credit: Rivian

Tags: rivianstock

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