Moderna’s stock fell 20% on January 8, 2025, after the company revised its 2025 sales forecast downward by approximately $1 billion amid several potential market challenges. This adjustment comes as Moderna aims to cut costs while expanding its product portfolio.
Moderna’s stock drops 20% after 2025 sales forecast cut
The biotech firm now anticipates 2025 revenue to range between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, primarily driven by sales from its Covid vaccine, Spikevax, and its newly launched respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, mRESVIA. This forecast marks a decrease from a previously projected range of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion outlined in September 2023. At that time, Moderna indicated that it expected to break even on an operating cash basis by 2028, delayed from the previously expected 2026, with revenue estimations of $6 billion.
Moderna Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock highlighted several factors contributing to the updated sales forecast. He noted increased competition in the Covid vaccine market, with Moderna’s share of the U.S. retail market dropping from 48% in 2023 to 40% by the end of 2024. The agreement for Sanofi to co-commercialize Novavax’s Covid vaccine is expected to heighten competition further.
Another significant point is the decline in vaccination rates, which fell by approximately 7% in the U.S. retail market during fall 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Mock also cited uncertainties regarding timing around manufacturing contracts with various countries and potential recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for RSV revaccination.
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Despite these challenges, Mock indicated that Moderna aims to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025, with an additional $500 million in reductions planned for 2026. He emphasized, “We are taking the right amount of cost to preserve our cash. We’re excited to invest and diversify our portfolio.”
The announcement precedes Moderna’s presentation at the annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, a significant event in the healthcare industry. For 2024, Moderna’s sales from its two vaccines are projected to meet forecasts, estimated at around $3 billion to $3.1 billion. However, these figures represent a significant decline from the $6.7 billion generated by the Covid vaccine in 2023 and the $18 billion recorded in 2022.
Moderna plans to enhance its portfolio with 10 new product approvals over the next three years, including a combination vaccine targeting both Covid and the flu, as well as a “next-generation” Covid vaccine. The company anticipates three approvals in 2025 alone and is focusing on its messenger RNA platform technology, which underpins both its Covid and RSV vaccines.
As of year-end 2024, Moderna reported product sales of $3.0-3.1 billion, including $1.7 billion in the U.S., and maintained a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion. The company estimates that its cash balance will decrease to $6 billion by the end of 2025, underlining the expected financial pressures amid ongoing transformations in its product line and market environment.
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Featured image credit: Moderna
